Nov-20 Energy Market Wrap

Carl Daley -

Introduction

November was a hot one! The warmest on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology, closing out the warmest Spring on record with temperatures more than 2 degrees above average. The heat was felt in the electricity spot market, with prices rallying in all regions led by Tasmania ($59/MWh) and Queensland ($45/MWh) for the month, but Queensland remains the lowest in the NEM.

Victoria ($44/MWh) was just 1.6% lower than last month, while NSW remains the highest across the NEM with $62/MWh for the month, and SA delivered $36/MWh for the month.

The unseasonal hot days lead to record high temperatures in numerous locations, driving up maximum demand levels for all regions except Victoria.

Overall energy consumption was lower than the same time last year for all regions except SA where consumption was 2.5% higher than the previous year.

Renewables Bonanza

Record levels of new renewable generation capacity was accredited during November with close to 1,200MW of new capacity was added to the NEM. Two thirds of this capacity was added in NSW and the remainder in VIC. Of the new capacity, 566MW was wind and 629MW was solar.

Despite the challenges of COVID-19, the Clean Energy Regulator reported that rooftop solar PV installations were at record 2.9GW of new capacity during 2020, up 34% from 2019. During November, rooftop solar PV generation was just shy of January’s record, while utility scale solar generation set a new record of 793GWh.

Gas Market

Wholesale gas prices continued to rally for all regions during November mirroring the rise in LNG netback prices which are derived from Asian LNG spot prices. Average domestic prices were around $6/GJ during November.

Electricity Forward Market

Following a rally in electricity forward prices during October, Cal-21 forward prices
softened in VIC and SA during November, remained flat in QLD and continued to rise in NSW and TAS.

LGC Forward Curve

In contrast to the electricity forward market, LGC forward prices, which had softened during October saw a steady increase for all calendar years during November.


This month’s edition contains a number of special features:

  • Update on the Clean Energy Regulator renewable projects Q3 report
  • NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap summary
  • The latest from our blog on declining Feed-in-Tariffs
  • Tracking of AEMO pre-dispatch performance to predict high spot price events

For more market news, our “At a Glance” state-by-state summary, and more in-depth market analysis subscribe now to access Australia's Most Comprehensive Energy Market Report.