EnergyByte

Challenges facing renewables

Solar farms across the NEM are earning less than 30 cents for every dollar of softening baseload prices, while LGC prices have collapsed. The wind sector is not immune and is facing higher canibilisation risks. PPA sellers may feel protected for now, but PPA buyers are already feeling the pain.

12 min read Jun 9, 2026

Market public

May-26 Generation Trends

Carl Daley

Battery storage transformed the NEM's evening peak in May-26, with prices dramatically lower across all regions year-on-year. QLD was the only region adding net renewable supply in the month, SA and VIC faced steep daytime price increases, and transmission flows increasingly shaped outcomes.

18 min read Jun 5, 2026

Market Wrap public

May Spot Prices

Carl Daley

May 2026 had near-zero average daily prices to over $180/MWh in 18 days. Two strong days reshaped a month defined by renewable oversupply, collapsing LGCs, and a daily price curve increasingly sculpted by the sun. The energy transition, in full view and not yet complete.

16 min read Jun 3, 2026

Market Wrap public

May-26 Financial Markets

Carl Daley

May 2026 spot prices hit six-year lows across the mainland, Cal-27 forwards set historical lows mid-month before partially recovering, and ASX trading reached a two-year high. Yet Q2-26 forwards still trade at a premium relying on a strong or volatile June spot.

5 min read Jun 1, 2026

Market Wrap public

2026 Financial Market Reflections

Carl Daley

The results of January to April are showing the market is facing structural changes that are forcing a downward price correction. Renewable growth is displacing coal, gas and mainland hydro, while BESS are suppressing evening peak prices.

9 min read May 5, 2026

Market Wrap public

Summer Spot Reflections

Carl Daley

March 2026 had its lowest electricity spot prices for 5 or so years. Generally, benign outcome across the market. Domestic gas prices remained subdued, while battery storage continued to grow, although not necessarily margins. April is predicted to be warmer than average, is there more to follow?

6 min read Apr 14, 2026

Market Wrap public

Low Easter Spot Prices

Carl Daley

Victorian Easter spot prices were the lowest in 23 years, with Good Friday and Easter Saturday averaging below zero. South Australia has now averaged around $30/MWh for 5 of the last 7 years. Base swap forward prices for Q2-26 have returned to mid-February levels and VIC is at a record low.

4 min read Apr 8, 2026

Market Wrap public

Are we facing a repeat of 2022?

Carl Daley

In the second quarter of 2022, Australia experienced exceptional gas and electricity prices triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine causing Europe to seek alternative energy sources. Is this year on a similar trajectory because of the ongoing Middle East conflict?

5 min read Mar 31, 2026

Market Wrap public

Middle East Impact on Prices

Carl Daley

The Middle East conflict is having a global impact on energy prices as oil shipping and production is impacted along with Qatar LNG exports also being impacted. We track the impact on Australian electricity prices.

4 min read Mar 12, 2026

Market Report public

Solar Eclipse Continues

Carl Daley

An update of the challenges facing the solar industry, likening to a "solar eclipse." It highlights a significant decline in solar energy prices, curtailment levels affecting revenue, and the financial stresses. Despite the potential of solar power, investment experiences remain complicated.

5 min read Mar 6, 2026

Market Report paid

Soft Prices Ready to Rally

Carl Daley

Record low QLD and NSW prices for 2026 and 2027 have evolved while VIC has held firm at lower levels. However, by mid-2028 the Yallourn closure will trigger the price bounce consolidated by the Gladstone and Earing closures in 2029. Higher prices are then expected to prevail for the next 3 years.

9 min read Mar 5, 2026

Market Wrap paid

Record Low Forward Prices

Carl Daley

NSW customers can now lock in power and LGC costs below any 2026 price level at record lows for 2027 and 2028. Forward prices in NSW and QLD have materially softened, while LGC prices have collapsed. Together, businesses have an unprecedented chance to secure energy costs at record-low levels.

4 min read Feb 17, 2026