EnergyByte

June-26 Generation

EnergyByte's June-26 & FY 25/26 generation review: BESS displace fossil fuel during crucial evening peak, renewables continue to outgrow BESS daytime charging load therefore soft daytime price persist. Solar and wind bundled prices fell 45% and 42% year-on-year.

17 min read Aug 3, 2026

Market Wrap public

June-26 Spot Market

Carl Daley

June spot electricity prices strengthened and was the lowest June in 6 years for NSW/QLD and 3 years elsewhere. This financial year was the third lowest for NSW, QLD, TAS and VIC over the last 6-years. Gas spot financial year prices were the lowest since 6 years ago and surged late in the month.

13 min read Jul 23, 2026

Market Wrap public

June-26 Financial Markets

Carl Daley

June spot prices were the lowest in 6-years on the east coast regions. Forward prices for Q2-26 failed to live up to pre-quarter expectations, although ASX trading activity continues to grow. LGC prices spiked sharply.

6 min read Jul 17, 2026

Market public

Basslink Puzzle

Carl Daley

Basslink is now regulated but it is puzzling why is it so, and why are Victorians paying 75% of the costs when Tasmania is the main beneficiary. If Basslink benefits are questionable, what does this mean for MarinusLink.

12 min read Jul 2, 2026

Market public

Wind price-impact lessens

Carl Daley

In winter 2025, low wind days were dangerous as they produced extreme spot prices. In winter 2026, low wind days have been far less influential. Battery storage has broken the link between low wind and high prices, making wind a less influential price driver than it was a year ago.

4 min read Jun 10, 2026

Market public

Challenges facing renewables

Carl Daley

Solar farms across the NEM are earning less than 30 cents for every dollar of softening baseload prices, while LGC prices have collapsed. The wind sector is not immune and is facing higher canibilisation risks. PPA sellers may feel protected for now, but PPA buyers are already feeling the pain.

12 min read Jun 9, 2026

Market public

May-26 Generation Trends

Carl Daley

Battery storage transformed the NEM's evening peak in May-26, with prices dramatically lower across all regions year-on-year. QLD was the only region adding net renewable supply in the month, SA and VIC faced steep daytime price increases, and transmission flows increasingly shaped outcomes.

18 min read Jun 5, 2026

Market Wrap public

May Spot Prices

Carl Daley

May 2026 had near-zero average daily prices to over $180/MWh in 18 days. Two strong days reshaped a month defined by renewable oversupply, collapsing LGCs, and a daily price curve increasingly sculpted by the sun. The energy transition, in full view and not yet complete.

16 min read Jun 3, 2026

Market Wrap public

May-26 Financial Markets

Carl Daley

May 2026 spot prices hit six-year lows across the mainland, Cal-27 forwards set historical lows mid-month before partially recovering, and ASX trading reached a two-year high. Yet Q2-26 forwards still trade at a premium relying on a strong or volatile June spot.

5 min read Jun 1, 2026

Market Wrap public

2026 Financial Market Reflections

Carl Daley

The results of January to April are showing the market is facing structural changes that are forcing a downward price correction. Renewable growth is displacing coal, gas and mainland hydro, while BESS are suppressing evening peak prices.

9 min read May 5, 2026

Market Wrap public

Summer Spot Reflections

Carl Daley

March 2026 had its lowest electricity spot prices for 5 or so years. Generally, benign outcome across the market. Domestic gas prices remained subdued, while battery storage continued to grow, although not necessarily margins. April is predicted to be warmer than average, is there more to follow?

6 min read Apr 14, 2026

Market Wrap public

Low Easter Spot Prices

Carl Daley

Victorian Easter spot prices were the lowest in 23 years, with Good Friday and Easter Saturday averaging below zero. South Australia has now averaged around $30/MWh for 5 of the last 7 years. Base swap forward prices for Q2-26 have returned to mid-February levels and VIC is at a record low.

4 min read Apr 8, 2026