EnergyByte

May 2026 had near-zero average daily prices to over $180/MWh in 18 days. Two strong days reshaped a month defined by renewable oversupply, collapsing LGCs, and a daily price curve increasingly sculpted by the sun. The energy transition, in full view and not yet complete.

May 2026 spot prices hit six-year lows across the mainland, Cal-27 forwards set historical lows mid-month before partially recovering, and ASX trading reached a two-year high. Yet Q2-26 forwards still trade at a premium relying on a strong or volatile June spot.

March 2026 had its lowest electricity spot prices for 5 or so years. Generally, benign outcome across the market. Domestic gas prices remained subdued, while battery storage continued to grow, although not necessarily margins. April is predicted to be warmer than average, is there more to follow?

Victorian Easter spot prices were the lowest in 23 years, with Good Friday and Easter Saturday averaging below zero. South Australia has now averaged around $30/MWh for 5 of the last 7 years. Base swap forward prices for Q2-26 have returned to mid-February levels and VIC is at a record low.

In the second quarter of 2022, Australia experienced exceptional gas and electricity prices triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine causing Europe to seek alternative energy sources. Is this year on a similar trajectory because of the ongoing Middle East conflict?

The Middle East conflict is having a global impact on energy prices as oil shipping and production is impacted along with Qatar LNG exports also being impacted. We track the impact on Australian electricity prices.