EnergyByte

Big Sentiment Day for NSW

After every NSW quarter last year settled below its 2024 counterpart and January 2026 spot delivered the weakest in five years, the market mood has turned bearish. Put-option volume has more than doubled year on year. Will today’s predicted extreme spot price break that pessimism?

5 min read Feb 11, 2026

Market Report paid

Summer Price and Demand

Carl Daley

Across the recent summer window since 1 December, the four mainland regions of the NEM have taken sharply different paths. Demand reached, and in places eclipsed, long-run highs, yet price responses were anything but uniform.

5 min read Feb 10, 2026

Market Report paid

Melbourne 40 °C Days

Carl Daley

During the National Electricity Market’s life, a forecast of 40 °C in Melbourne heralds high or record demand, a reduction in turbine efficiency, reserve squeeze and high interconnector dependency causing NSW price separation with extreme Victorian spot prices. However, has the market changed?

6 min read Feb 9, 2026

public

Australia Day 2026

Carl Daley

Australia Day 2026 in South Australia played out as a challenging day with searing heat, a mid-day wind slump, and a valiant yet ultimately exhausted, fleet of big batteries.

3 min read Jan 30, 2026

Market Report paid

Generation Annual Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley

The NEM expanded by 9,142MW in 2025. Solar generation captured a shrinking value as solar prices diverged from average spot prices, whilst LGC prices collapsed during the year. SA solar had nearly two-thirds of potential energy curtailed. Heywood and Basslink had more network constraints.

18 min read Jan 30, 2026

Market Report paid

Spot Market Annual Report

Carl Daley, Heather Wang

With the conclusion of 2025, this spot price report analyses the trends, drivers, and underlying factors shaping electricity spot prices across the NEM. The insights provide a snapshot of the latest trends and the evolving energy market landscape.

12 min read Jan 27, 2026

Market Report public

Weekly Report Ending 18 Jan-26

Carl Daley

Record-shattering wind, Q1-26 swaps and caps trading tell a story, plus fresh coal-plant hiccups impact prices and risk. At times renewables are crashing prices, but volatility is flexing and premiums are being paid while potential volatility prevails.

5 min read Jan 19, 2026

Market paid

Record Low Forward Prices for Q1-26

Carl Daley

For this time of the quarter, VIC has struck a 10-year Q1 low while NSW & QLD have hit a low point not seen for 5-years. The weekend volatility in NSW might help turn the tide, and history teaches us that you must treat the market with respect. But the staggering downward trends are unmistakable.

4 min read Jan 11, 2026

Market Report paid

Financial Market Annual Report

Carl Daley

Recapping 2025, market sentiment shifted downward with falling Cal-26 and Q1-26 forward prices. Trading activity increased from 2024 levels, although was less than previous years. Swaps have become less popular while Options and Caps grew. Put Options increased rapidly in some Regions.

13 min read Jan 5, 2026

Market Report public

Slip, Slop, Slap for Summer

Carl Daley

The forth coming summer will be the next pivotal point in the market. Perceptions of the risk have softened and the Q1 quarter price has heavily traded down. Will summer bite and short players get sunburnt, or will Cal-26 and onwards reflect a lower risk premia?

7 min read Dec 23, 2025

Market Report paid

Nov-25 Generation Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley, Eric Chan

November added 824 MW to the NEM. High renewable output met low operational demand, creating severe pricing dislocation. Solar assets faced deep discounts against TWA prices and record-high curtailment rates. VIC registered its highest November net exports to NSW in five years.

15 min read Dec 3, 2025

Market public

November Finale - Impact

Carl Daley

Last week we wrote about how the final week of November has a history in shaping the market, especially for the pending summer. Well, for this year, the shaping lived up to the tradition; but in a very different manner.

6 min read Dec 1, 2025