Jay Ros

January maximum demand levels were low compared to historical levels resulting in relatively soft spot price outcomes, except for brief price volatility in QLD and NSW. High offers from Hydro kept TAS prices around $120/MWh. Gas prices retreated below $14/GJ in following a lengthy rally in Q4-24.

In 2024, record new generation capacity joined the electricity market. Wind weighted prices were at record lows for all regions except SA, while higher daytime prices improved solar farm performance across the NEM. Broader ranges in operational demand across regions intensified market volatility.

The energy market was under considerable stress during 2024, leading to higher electricity spot prices. The pain was particularly felt towards the north with QLD and NSW recording their second-highest average prices after the 2022 Energy Crisis.

High prices persisted in the electricity and gas spot markets during November, with extreme electricity spot prices in QLD and NSW, and surging gas spot prices in the STTM. The NEM survived the hottest November on record, but we aren’t out of the woods yet with a hot summer on the radar.

Mild sunny weather led to record low minimum demand for the NEM as well as record lows in VIC and SA. Meanwhile QLD and NSW continued to separate from the rest of the NEM with significantly stronger power spot prices. Gas spot prices continued to rise with average prices around $13/GJ in October.

The NEM Q3 average price finished the highest since the 2022 Energy Crisis despite extremely low September prices for VIC and TAS. In SA, volatile winds drove volatile spot prices, while mild days with high VRE crushed prices in VIC and TAS. Meanwhile, NSW and QLD had above average price levels.

Forward electricity contract prices went for a wild ride in Q3-24. Volatile weather played a significant part in driving price outcomes, with strong price rallies in July and August followed by softening prices in September, closing well below market expectations at the beginning of the quarter.

Cold weather and low VRE generation contributed to extreme prices early in August. This was followed by unusually warm temperatures, softening demand, falling gas consumption and softer spot prices driven by record levels of renewable generation.

Electricity spot prices remained high across the NEM in July as very low temperatures drove strong demand. SA experienced extreme price volatility late in the month as cold temperatures coincided with very low wind generation. East Coast gas spot prices also remained high averaging above $13/GJ.

NEM fossil fuel generation ramped up to offset the lowest wind generation for June in seven years. In Tasmania, hydro generation fell to the lowest level since 2009, Tamar Valley fired up for the first time in five years, and energy imports from VIC were the highest for June since 2017.

Electricity and gas spot price volatility intensified in June. The portion of electricity spot prices around $300/MWh swelled pushing average monthly prices beyond $150/MWh. Average daily gas hub prices hit $28/GJ in Sydney and Melbourne after AEMO announced a gas supply risk for the coming months.

There were 861MW of new generation connections in May. Despite rising wind and solar Generator-Weighted-Average prices, most NEM regions continued to have large discounts to their Time-Weighted-Average prices. Additionally, most NEM regions reported lower wind and solar curtailment rates.