Jay Ros

Our Monthly Report continues with Spot Market prices where a mild September and high VRE generation brought softening electricity prices, while gas spot prices have fallen to pre-2022 price levels due to soft demand, high production and storage levels, price caps and softer international prices.

Continuing low spot prices impacted forward expectations despite the warnings of bushfires, a hot summer and possible shortages. Last October the forward market peaked, but this October is set for a downhill run as Spring conditions of plenty of wind and increasing sunshine prevail.

Contrary to 12-months ago, market prices have softened and are failing to live up to the market's previous expectations. Forward power prices have softened although are often able to demand a material premium because of the perceived heightened risk.

The spot prices for the financial year were the highest on record for NSW, VIC, SA and TAS, and the second highest for QLD. The June month set a new record for wind generation, pushing spot prices down and exceeding Brown Coal generation. Read on for further detail.

May-23 was a story of increases across the energy market. Electricity spot prices were the highest year-to-date for all mainland NEM regions, forward electricity contract prices rallied across the NEM, and ancillary services costs for May were the highest year-to-date.

Despite mild weather, low demand and high solar generation during April, the wholesale electricity spot market continued to deliver strong prices in Qld and NSW, while Vic and SA were around the median of the last seven years, and Tas lower.

March continued where February left off, with a softening forward electricity prices, gas prices, and LGC prices. But that all turned around in the last week of March with electricity, gas and LGC prices rallying strongly.

February was a relatively quiet and uneventful month in the energy market despite prices being tested by seasonably high demand in Vic and SA. Wholesale electricity and gas spot prices remained subdued, while the electricity forward market and the LGC market continued to soften.

2023 is well underway and the 2022 Energy Crisis now seems to be a thing of the past. Electricity spot prices, forward prices, gas prices, and LGCs all continue to soften as the year gets off to a promising start.

This report is the third and final part of our Annual Report series, and focusses on generation, demand and reserve levels. There are 7 components of the report providing a range of insights and conclusions.

This second part of our Annual Market Report focuses on the Financial aspects of the market by addressing the performance of financial swap and cap derivatives, before assessing environmental certificates.