Heather Wang

The NEM expanded its capacity by 167MW in October. While demand remained at historical lows, Generator-weighted Average prices strengthened across most regions. VIC continued to experience persistent negative prices, causing energy flows to shift towards regions with more favourable pricing.

NEM capacity grew by 340MW in September. Strong winds and mild weather led to lower demand and extensive curtailment, depressing Generator-Weighted Average prices. Many farms increased reliance on Large-scale Generation Certificates for revenue. TAS transitioned from importer to net exporter to VIC.

NEM capacity grew by 1,678MW in August. With temperatures rising, energy demand dipped, while consistent strong winds boosted supply, resulting in large curtailments and declined Generator-Weighted Average prices in most NEM regions. TAS still depended on VIC energy exports due to hydro shortage.

The NEM added 311MW of new generation capacity in July. Calm and cold weather conditions in SA, VIC, and TAS at the end of the month led to low wind output and market volatility. Gas generation increased to compensate. VIC exports to TAS reached record high levels for July.

NEM fossil fuel generation ramped up to offset the lowest wind generation for June in seven years. In Tasmania, hydro generation fell to the lowest level since 2009, Tamar Valley fired up for the first time in five years, and energy imports from VIC were the highest for June since 2017.

There were 861MW of new generation connections in May. Despite rising wind and solar Generator-Weighted-Average prices, most NEM regions continued to have large discounts to their Time-Weighted-Average prices. Additionally, most NEM regions reported lower wind and solar curtailment rates.

The NEM continues to wait for the first new generation connection for 2024, marking the longest stretch with no new connections since 2018. Wind and solar generators performance fell in April with larger discounts to the spot price. In brighter news, wind and solar curtailment continues to fall.

Q1-24 marked the first time in six years that the NEM had no new generation connections. March also saw lower generation and GWA prices for wind and solar farms across most NEM regions, except for SA. Curtailment of VRE was in seasonal decline but remained high for March in SA and VIC.

In February VIC and SA solar farms had a big uptick in weighted average prices. Wind weighted average prices were also higher for all regions except QLD. VIC maximum generator outages were exceptionally high due to the Loy Yang A outage caused by a forced trip on 13 Feb.

Summer finally arrived for the southern NEM states, forcing Victorian transmission lines to topple on 13 Feb and when combined with the extreme heat, resulted in significant price volatility. The FCAS market in SA also experienced volatility on 13 Feb, racking up more than $6m in costs.

Forward prices rallied in QLD and NSW during February as a result of strong demand and high spot prices. VIC prices were affected by the massive power outage on 13 Feb with the Q1-24 price jumping $20/MWh. In contrast, SA forward prices continued to free fall with all tenors approaching $80/MWh.