The Q1-25 quarter spot prices finished in the bottom quartile of our spot forecast, creating a significant seller’s margin profit for the quarter. Forward market prices generally rallied during the month, reversing the February downward trend.
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1.0 Highlights
The Q1-25 quarter finished softer than the market expected, thereby creating a sellers market. A very significant margin for the sellers of both swaps and $300/MWh caps resulted. SA had the largest seller’s margin, NSW cap seller’s margin set a new record, and QLD cap seller’s market was the second highest on record.
Our spot forecasting model (fourcast), correctly assessed prior to the quarter commencing that the forward market was most likely over-valued in all regions except VIC, which was regarded as fair, but proved to also be over-valued.
The financial year contracts rallied by the end of the month, reversing the February trend.
Trading activity was more than last year’s March, but less than the previous month. ASX Variation Margin calls were nothing too remarkable.
LGC prices continue to soften and the longest dated contract of Cal-29, has now softened to $12.50 per certificate.
