Are you looking for an in-depth and insightful Market Report on the Australian National Electricity Market? We compile a monthly report with fancy charts, commentary and sophisticated analysis of the NEM.
Market Reports
Market Report
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Nov-24 Generation Report
The NEM expanded its capacity by 121MW in November. Warm temperatures plus extended baseload outages contributed to tight supply-demand balance, driving exceptional NEM Generator-weighted Average price growth in November, with NSW and QLD leading gains.
12 min read
Market Report
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Nov-24 Spot Market Report
High prices persisted in the electricity and gas spot markets during November, with extreme electricity spot prices in QLD and NSW, and surging gas spot prices in the STTM. The NEM survived the hottest November on record, but we aren’t out of the woods yet with a hot summer on the radar.
14 min read
Market Report
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Oct-24 Generation Report
The NEM expanded its capacity by 167MW in October. While demand remained at historical lows, Generator-weighted Average prices strengthened across most regions. VIC continued to experience persistent negative prices, causing energy flows to shift towards regions with more favourable pricing.
12 min read
Market Report
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Oct-24 Spot Market Report
Mild sunny weather led to record low minimum demand for the NEM as well as record lows in VIC and SA. Meanwhile QLD and NSW continued to separate from the rest of the NEM with significantly stronger power spot prices. Gas spot prices continued to rise with average prices around $13/GJ in October.
13 min read
Market Report
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Sep-24 Generation Report
NEM capacity grew by 340MW in September. Strong winds and mild weather led to lower demand and extensive curtailment, depressing Generator-Weighted Average prices. Many farms increased reliance on Large-scale Generation Certificates for revenue. TAS transitioned from importer to net exporter to VIC.
12 min read
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Sep-24 Spot Market Report
The NEM Q3 average price finished the highest since the 2022 Energy Crisis despite extremely low September prices for VIC and TAS. In SA, volatile winds drove volatile spot prices, while mild days with high VRE crushed prices in VIC and TAS. Meanwhile, NSW and QLD had above average price levels.
14 min read
Market Report
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Sep-24 Financial Market Report
Forward electricity contract prices went for a wild ride in Q3-24. Volatile weather played a significant part in driving price outcomes, with strong price rallies in July and August followed by softening prices in September, closing well below market expectations at the beginning of the quarter.
8 min read
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Aug-24 Generation Report
NEM capacity grew by 1,678MW in August. With temperatures rising, energy demand dipped, while consistent strong winds boosted supply, resulting in large curtailments and declined Generator-Weighted Average prices in most NEM regions. TAS still depended on VIC energy exports due to hydro shortage.
12 min read
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Aug-24 Spot Market Report
Cold weather and low VRE generation contributed to extreme prices early in August. This was followed by unusually warm temperatures, softening demand, falling gas consumption and softer spot prices driven by record levels of renewable generation.
13 min read
Market Report
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Aug-24 Winter Reflections
It has been a wild ride this winter in the forward market driven by turbulences in the spot market, structural changes in spot outcomes, prevailing weather conditions and challenges facing the market.
5 min read
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Jul-24 Spot Market Report
Electricity spot prices remained high across the NEM in July as very low temperatures drove strong demand. SA experienced extreme price volatility late in the month as cold temperatures coincided with very low wind generation. East Coast gas spot prices also remained high averaging above $13/GJ.
14 min read
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Jul-24 Generation Report
The NEM added 311MW of new generation capacity in July. Calm and cold weather conditions in SA, VIC, and TAS at the end of the month led to low wind output and market volatility. Gas generation increased to compensate. VIC exports to TAS reached record high levels for July.
13 min read
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Jun-24 Generation Report
NEM fossil fuel generation ramped up to offset the lowest wind generation for June in seven years. In Tasmania, hydro generation fell to the lowest level since 2009, Tamar Valley fired up for the first time in five years, and energy imports from VIC were the highest for June since 2017.
13 min read
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Jun-24 Spot Market Report
Electricity and gas spot price volatility intensified in June. The portion of electricity spot prices around $300/MWh swelled pushing average monthly prices beyond $150/MWh. Average daily gas hub prices hit $28/GJ in Sydney and Melbourne after AEMO announced a gas supply risk for the coming months.
15 min read
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May-24 Generation Report
There were 861MW of new generation connections in May. Despite rising wind and solar Generator-Weighted-Average prices, most NEM regions continued to have large discounts to their Time-Weighted-Average prices. Additionally, most NEM regions reported lower wind and solar curtailment rates.
15 min read
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May-24 Spot Market Report
May was marked by extreme price volatility in NSW where the CPT was exceeded on 8 May triggering Administered Pricing, while low wind generation contributed to high average spot prices in the southern states despite lower demand levels. Gas spot prices soared averaging above $13/GJ for all regions.
16 min read
Market Report
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May-24 Financial Market Report
The month of May once again reflected a change in perceptions of the future electricity prices, and continued the history of being the most heavily traded month along with November, each calendar year.
5 min read
Market Report
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Apr-24 Generation Report
The NEM continues to wait for the first new generation connection for 2024, marking the longest stretch with no new connections since 2018. Wind and solar generators performance fell in April with larger discounts to the spot price. In brighter news, wind and solar curtailment continues to fall.
12 min read
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Apr-24 Spot Market Report
Spot prices strengthened in April with a very high portion of price outcomes between $100 to $300/MWh pushing the NEM average April price to $85/MWh compared to $75/MWh for Q1-24. Forward prices significantly rallied during the month. Gas spot prices also strengthened but averaged just below $12/GJ.
14 min read
Market Report
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Apr-24 Financial Market Report
Based on our probabilistic spot forecast for Q2-24, we recognised that the forward market was likely to be under-valued. As events have played-out, this proved to be true and the market rallied, not only for Q2-24, but through the whole forward curve.
6 min read
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Mar-24 Generation Report
Q1-24 marked the first time in six years that the NEM had no new generation connections. March also saw lower generation and GWA prices for wind and solar farms across most NEM regions, except for SA. Curtailment of VRE was in seasonal decline but remained high for March in SA and VIC.
11 min read
Market Report
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Mar-24 Financial Market Report
The electricity forward market rallied in the southern states as news of potential gas shortages for Victoria circled in the media. Q1-25 traded most heavily during the quarter, especially for QLD which remains stubbornly high despite the return of Callide C3 and the expected return of C4 this July.
6 min read
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Mar-24 Spot Market Report
March was the least eventful month for Q1-24, with lower spot prices for most of the month apart from a Labor Day long weekend heatwave for VIC and SA, and some oppressive humidity hitting QLD later in the month. Both occasions coincided with low levels of VRE resulting in high price volatility.
15 min read
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Feb-24 Generation Report
In February VIC and SA solar farms had a big uptick in weighted average prices. Wind weighted average prices were also higher for all regions except QLD. VIC maximum generator outages were exceptionally high due to the Loy Yang A outage caused by a forced trip on 13 Feb.
11 min read
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Feb-24 Spot Market Report
Summer finally arrived for the southern NEM states, forcing Victorian transmission lines to topple on 13 Feb and when combined with the extreme heat, resulted in significant price volatility. The FCAS market in SA also experienced volatility on 13 Feb, racking up more than $6m in costs.
16 min read
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Feb-24 Financial Market Report
Forward prices rallied in QLD and NSW during February as a result of strong demand and high spot prices. VIC prices were affected by the massive power outage on 13 Feb with the Q1-24 price jumping $20/MWh. In contrast, SA forward prices continued to free fall with all tenors approaching $80/MWh.
7 min read
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Jan-24 Generation Report
For the first time in years, VIC wind farms generated at a premium to the spot price while SA wind farms were very close to generating at a premium due to very low spot prices. The news of the early closure of Snuggery and Port Lincoln Power Stations was also a notable development in January.
10 min read
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Jan-24 Spot Market Report
Hot and muggy weather in the north and mild weather in the south made for two very different stories in the electricity spot market during January. In the north, QLD recorded its second highest January average spot price while down south, Victoria had record low levels around $22/MWh.
11 min read
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Jan-24 Financial Market Report
Record demand and extreme prices in January drove up the QLD forward market and to a lesser degree NSW, while down south in VIC and SA, a weak summer has driven forward prices towards the floor. The market has since decided these high prices cannot be sustained and forward prices have nosedived.
5 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report Part 3 - Generation and Demand
This report is the third and final part of our Annual Report series covering generation, emissions, demand, weather, and reserve levels. There are 7 components of the report providing a range of insights and conclusions.
15 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report Part 2 - Financial
This second part of our Annual Market Report focuses on the Financial aspects of the market by addressing the performance of financial derivatives, followed by an analysis of environmental certificate prices.
14 min read
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Annual Market Report Part 1 - Spot Prices
The Australian energy market continued to recover during 2023 from the extraordinary global energy crisis it faced in 2022. Electricity and gas spot prices softened but remained high compared to pre-2022 levels.
12 min read
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Nov-23 Generation Report
448MW of new generation capacity in November pushed the total for 2023 higher than recent years, in a record year for battery storage totalling 847MW. The weighted premium for solar generation improved as daytime prices climbed. This month we also take a look at battery performance across the NEM.
8 min read
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Nov-23 Spot Market Report
Electricity spot prices rose in November, as lower levels of VRE generation was replaced by gas-powered generation, although the increase in GPG did not prevent gas spot prices from softening from around $12/GJ to $9/GJ. Highlights from energy market news feature significant updates for the market.
11 min read
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Nov-23 Financial Market Report
November 2023 was the second most heavily traded month in history as the market softened throughout the month. Spot prices for Q4-23 continue to fail to deliver to previous market expectations.
4 min read
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Oct-23 Financial Market Report
Electricity spot prices continued to fall well short of market expectations in October, driving down the Q4-23 forward price. The sentiment of the market outlook is mixed with some Regions strengthening and others softening.
5 min read
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Oct-23 Spot Market Report
Could this be the calm before the storm? Low demand and high renewable generation crushed electricity spot prices during October, but how long can it last? El Niño continues to threaten a hot and dry summer with AEMO's Summer Outlook painting the picture of a market on a knife's edge.
15 min read
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Sep-23 Spot Market Report
Our Monthly Report continues with Spot Market prices where a mild September and high VRE generation brought softening electricity prices, while gas spot prices have fallen to pre-2022 price levels due to soft demand, high production and storage levels, price caps and softer international prices.
17 min read
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Sep-23 Financial Market Report
Continuing low spot prices impacted forward expectations despite the warnings of bushfires, a hot summer and possible shortages. Last October the forward market peaked, but this October is set for a downhill run as Spring conditions of plenty of wind and increasing sunshine prevail.
6 min read
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Aug-23 Energy Market Report
The electricity market bucked the trend in August with stronger spot prices and bullish activity in the electricity forward market. Revised ESOO reliability outlooks have seized the market's attention and turned attention to generator and State Government negotiations around retirement dates.
31 min read
Market Report
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Jul-23 Energy Market Report
Contrary to 12-months ago, market prices have softened and are failing to live up to the market's previous expectations. Forward power prices have softened although are often able to demand a material premium because of the perceived heightened risk.
31 min read
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Jun-23 Energy Market Report
The spot prices for the financial year were the highest on record for NSW, VIC, SA and TAS, and the second highest for QLD. The June month set a new record for wind generation, pushing spot prices down and exceeding Brown Coal generation. Read on for further detail.
25 min read
Market
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Market Rules and the Numbers
The rules are the rules, but prevailing numbers can move around driven by changes in perceptions. What an ending to the financial year. This article reflects on the rules learnt and then makes observations of the last two quarters in the context of the changing market conditions.
5 min read
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Jun-23 Energy News Bytes
The first News Byte for the month is a positive outlook from AEMO's 2023 Winter Readiness Report forecasting a less severe winter with lower risks compared to 2022. Developments in the renewables and storage space also features significantly in this month's news.
7 min read
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May-23 Energy Market Report
May-23 was a story of increases across the energy market. Electricity spot prices were the highest year-to-date for all mainland NEM regions, forward electricity contract prices rallied across the NEM, and ancillary services costs for May were the highest year-to-date.
24 min read
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May-23 Energy News Bytes
Energy market news for May features a variety of important developments and announcements across the energy market. Most noteworthy were the AER's final determination for the 2023-24 Default Market Offer, and a number of significant developments in the renewables sector.
7 min read
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Apr-23 Energy Market Report
Despite mild weather, low demand and high solar generation during April, the wholesale electricity spot market continued to deliver strong prices in Qld and NSW, while Vic and SA were around the median of the last seven years, and Tas lower.
21 min read
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Apr-23 Energy News Bytes
Monthly energy market news for April covers a wide range of topics including LNG exports, the closure of Liddell Power Station, utility battery storage developments, and other news in the renewables space including significant updates on the growing wave of offshore wind projects.
6 min read
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Mar-23 Energy Market Report
March continued where February left off, with a softening forward electricity prices, gas prices, and LGC prices. But that all turned around in the last week of March with electricity, gas and LGC prices rallying strongly.
25 min read
Market Report
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Mar-23 Energy News Bytes
Energy market news over the past month featured a number of important updates in the wholesale gas market with implications for the National Electricity Market in the short and medium term.
7 min read
Market Report
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Feb-23 Energy Market Report
February was a relatively quiet and uneventful month in the energy market despite prices being tested by seasonably high demand in Vic and SA. Wholesale electricity and gas spot prices remained subdued, while the electricity forward market and the LGC market continued to soften.
22 min read
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Jan-23 Energy Market Report
2023 is well underway and the 2022 Energy Crisis now seems to be a thing of the past. Electricity spot prices, forward prices, gas prices, and LGCs all continue to soften as the year gets off to a promising start.
22 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report Part 3 - Generation and Demand
This report is the third and final part of our Annual Report series, and focusses on generation, demand and reserve levels. There are 7 components of the report providing a range of insights and conclusions.
16 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report Part 2 - Financial
This second part of our Annual Market Report focuses on the Financial aspects of the market by addressing the performance of financial swap and cap derivatives, before assessing environmental certificates.
14 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report Part 1 - Spot Prices
This is the first part of our Annual Market Report and focuses on spot prices where not surprisingly, 2022 set records across all regions of the NEM.
16 min read
Market Report
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Dec-22 Energy News Bytes
Happy New Year to everyone as we recap on the major news items from December.
10 min read
Market Report
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Nov-22 Energy Market Report
November was another busy month in the energy markets. Energy news and announcements were very prevalent in the media, many of which were covered in our busy November edition of Energy Market Bytes with some of the highlights included in the Market Report below.
26 min read
Market Report
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Nov-22 Energy News Bytes
The prospect of price caps is dominating the industry discussion, but meanwhile there was plenty of other activity across the market.
12 min read
Market Report
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Oct-22 Energy Market Report
Structural market changes were announced by Federal and State Governments. More prominent Government ownership and the acceleration of expanded transmission all featured. Forward market prices were extremely volatile during the month but appear to have peaked.
24 min read
Market Report
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Oct-22 Energy News Bytes
Monthly news for October covers a wide range of issues including possible price caps, Government initiatives in transmission and power station ownership.
8 min read
Market Report
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Sep-22 Energy Market Report
Following an unprecedented second quarter in the energy market, the third quarter settles down, but finished as the second-highest price period in the market's history. Forward market prices continue to rise.
22 min read
Market Report
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Aug-22 Energy Market Report
After a tumultuous winter for the Australian energy markets, the electricity and gas spot markets simmered down during August.
23 min read
Market Report
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Aug-22 Energy Market News
Once upon a time Australia was an energy island, this is no longer the case.
17 min read
Market Report
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Jul-22 Energy Market Report
As July drew to a close, rays of light penetrated from the 2022 Energy Crisis. Market conditions are easing, but it may be a temporary phase emerging from the winter.
23 min read
Market Report
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July-22 Energy Market News
This month's energy market news covered a wide range of issues dealing with the energy crisis, and the many transition projects and policies underway.
12 min read
Market Report
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Jun-22 Energy Market Report
The month of June set new records on all fronts, leading the east coast of Australia energy market into a new paradigm.
25 min read
Market
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Wind and Solar Farm Performance FY-21/22
The best performing wind farm and solar farm has been derived for the financial year ending 30 June 2022.
1 min read
Market Report
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June-22 Energy Market News
The month of June has been extraordinary, with administered prices invoked across the NEM, market suspension and financial pain being felt by consumers and some industry participants.
13 min read
Market Report
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May-22 Energy Market Report
The energy market in the NEM has now progressed from extraordinary to crisis, thereby becoming a topic of discussion at Sunday BBQ’s and Board Rooms across Australia.
25 min read
Market Report
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May-22 Energy Market News
Market news this month have been dominated by the Federal Election, AGL demerger and soaring market prices.
13 min read
Market Report
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Apr-22 Energy Market Report
The Australian east coast energy market has reached an important juncture as the market grapples with the renewable transition and absorbs the global impact of rising energy prices. Origin Energy's CEO Frank Calibri prediction that, “It's going to get messy”, has arrived.
23 min read
Market Report
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Apr-22 Energy Market News
Our news bytes for the month of April 2022 are dominated by renewables, policy issues including election issues and financial news.
12 min read
Market Report
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Mar-22 Energy Market Report
The month of March has been another significant month as Australia has not been immune from the global upward energy price pressures, by experiencing an unparalleled surge in energy costs for the forthcoming Australian winter, which has flowed through to forward prices for the next few years.
23 min read
Market Report
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Mar-22 Energy Market News
This month is dominated by news relating to the fast tracking transition Australia is facing to renewables. Consequently, the dominant sections are Renewables, Hydrogen and Storage.
14 min read
Market Report
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Feb-22 Energy Market Report
February 2022 delivered much stronger electricity spot price outcomes and despite global pressures, steady gas spot prices. Next winter forward electricity prices surged and longer dated forward prices rallied driven by recent trends, the Russian invasion, and early power station retirements.
22 min read
Market Report
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Feb-22 Energy Market News
February news was dominated by AGL and Origin Energy, although Andrew Forrest continues to push hydrogen opportunities. Power plant closures are brought forward while Brookfield with Cannon-Brookes make a move on AGL.
11 min read
Market Report
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Jan-22 Energy Market Report
January 2022 delivered higher electricity and environmental certificate price outcomes in the NEM, while gas remained immune from the upward global LNG price pressure. An usual high level of baseload outages occurred in NSW, and wetter conditions filled the hydro power water storages.
10 min read
Market Report
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Jan-22 Energy Market News
Market news for January was a quieter than usual due to the holiday period. Our summary of the key articles is listed below:
6 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report - Generation
This report is the third and final part of our Annual Report series, and focusses on generation, demand and reserve levels. There are 7 components of the report providing a range of insights and conclusions.
11 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report - Financial
This second part of our Annual Market Report focuses on the Financial aspects of the market by addressing the performance of financial swap and cap derivatives, before assessing environmental certificates. The year of 2021 was a big price mover on all fronts.
12 min read
Market Report
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Annual Market Report - Spot Prices
Our Annual Market Report has been divided into 3 parts, and this is the first part focusing on Spot Prices. Trends and insights have been drawn, displayed using engaging interactive charts.
14 min read
Market Report
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Dec-21 Energy Market News
To finish off our news summary for 2021, our December report shows the enormous amount of activity that is occurring in the industry, both locally and internationally.
21 min read
Market Report
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Nov-21 Energy Market Report
The 2021 rollercoaster continues. Following the rally of prices over many months, October prices stabilised, but now November has continued the upward trend.
21 min read
Market Report
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Nov-21 Energy Market News
Following on from the COP26, Climate news continues to be prominent, followed by Renewables, Finance, Policy and Regulations and several PPAs.
15 min read
Market Report
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Oct-21 Energy Market News
Australia's net emissions policy and consequences have dominated the big news month of October.
13 min read
Market Report
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Oct-21 Energy Market Report
The month of October was exceptional in so many facets. Australia's long chequered history in developing a federal energy and emissions plan opened another chapter, in preparation for the COP26 Glasgow summit.
20 min read
Market Report
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Sep-21 Energy Market Report
The rollercoaster continued during September with skyrocketing gas prices, a rally in LGC prices, and record levels of negative price periods sending wholesale electricity spot prices plummeting.
26 min read
Market Report
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Aug-21 Energy Market Report
After a tumultuous May-July period for the Australian Electricity and Gas Markets, August was a COVID free walk in the park on a sunny day. In fact, August had many sunny days making for milder weather and softer demand for most regions.
26 min read
Market Report
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Jul-21 Energy Market Report
The largest electricity Price Shock has occurred to the market in Queensland and NSW, while carbon prices continue to surge in all related certificates and there have been no stopping gas prices.
23 min read
Market Report
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Jun-21 Energy Market Report
Overview
The run of spot electricity prices since mid-May has been the largest shock to the industry in QLD and…
26 min read
Market Report
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May-21 Energy Market Report
Overview
The month of May has been an exceptional outcome with spot prices rallying strongly following on from the recovering…
24 min read
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