Sep-21 Energy Market Report

Q1-24 marked the first time in six years that the NEM had no new generation connections. March also saw lower generation and GWA prices for wind and solar farms across most NEM regions, except for SA. Curtailment of VRE was in seasonal decline but remained high for March in SA and VIC.

The electricity forward market rallied in the southern states as news of potential gas shortages for Victoria circled in the media. Q1-25 traded most heavily during the quarter, especially for QLD which remains stubbornly high despite the return of Callide C3 and the expected return of C4 this July.

March was the least eventful month for Q1-24, with lower spot prices for most of the month apart from a Labor Day long weekend heatwave for VIC and SA, and some oppressive humidity hitting QLD later in the month. Both occasions coincided with low levels of VRE resulting in high price volatility.